Calling It for Inflation

 Inflation wins. We have already had severe capital inflation. Eventually, when rich people spend money, it impacts wage earners. Trickle down becomes a torrent of prices. The pressure for wage inflation was held in check by undocumented immigrant labor, destruction of unions, imports and, until recently, interest rates.

Then DJT and Steven Miller terrorized the undocumented immigrants. Terror works, particularly institutional terror. Mexicans love their kids and they quit coming. Fruit rots on the ground. Stores are closed on Monday. We still get immigrants, but they are refugees, and they have status. Undocumented immigrants set the marginal wage rate low. A documented immigrant is less likely to endanger their status by driving the truck or recycling shipping containers. Without our slaves we have to be more rational and that is expensive. There have been multiple economic shocks and we are no longer as cushioned.

There is also demographic. A lot of us are retired and indexed. We will pay our mortgages and student loans out of social security.

Inflation makes more sense when you distinguish between capital inflation and wage inflation. The dirty secret of the Federal Reserve was that raising interest lowered wage inflation and increased capital inflation. But manufacturers and any other interest sensitive companies were sacrificed in 2008 to the finance industry. Companies that survived are less likely to feel the rise in interest rate and will keep hiring. So now the Federal Reserve is yanking on a loose lever, employment is no longer as dependent on interest rate.

Banks depend on interest rates. I am shocked that Silicon Valley Bank went under. It is fun to see everyone dancing around rescuing SVB clients. SVB was supposed to be the smart ones. Bankers are dumb, but SVB was playing by the rules, admittedly rules they lobbied for, but the same across their midrange sector. SVB going under means that all banks are in danger. The Fed rapidly cranked interest rate. When SVB clients realized they could get better return, SVB was holding onto paper paying the earlier low interest rate and cashing out lost the bank money. If this isn’t a failure of Federal Reserve regulation, then it has to be a failure of Federal Reserve policy.

Please don’t mention reserves. There is no reserve requirement. Capital requirements are thinly veiled silliness. You can’t expect banks to hold cash.

Raising interest rate this quickly will crash more banks, long before it impacts employment. The Fed can crash as many banks as it wants, it can nationalize the banks, the fight against wage inflation is lost.