Brexit

Brexit makes me proud to be an American. We may see the unification of Ireland, the separation of Scotland and, most certainly, an English depression as a consequence. England will be left as a tax haven, tourist site and source for military mercenaries.  We have all been influenced by vaudeville. But the music hall is most deeply ingrained in English culture. Looking over London’s architecture, it is apparent that they are deeply silly and proud of it. Can silliness be the explanation for their ruin?

Perhaps it is the return of Boudicca.  The British were so sick of the Romans that they revolted and laid waste to Romans and their sympathizers. They were defeated attacking a Roman army. The true cause of their defeat was that the British preferred trade even under the Romans. This lesson has been lost.

Maybe it is the Greeks. English take Greeks seriously. The English classical education justifies the English empire as in the history of the empires that precede it. The Greeks rag on the Germans but they are not leaving the Union. Perhaps the English were listening to the Greeks.

The English will tell you it is because of immigrants. Don’t they know their Union from their Commonwealth? It is the Poles. The Poles are the first large immigrant group that is not from the Commonwealth. The Poles lack the correct obeisance or truculence. The English are willing to destroy the Kingdom to rid them of the Poles.

What makes Poles so insufferable to the English? They both have awful food. The English are proud of their empire. The Poles are proud of surviving the Russians and Germans. Is it orthodontia? The size of their heads? The plumbing, it has to be the plumbing.  If you are a Pole living in England, please, don’t belittle the English. Even the Irish know better than that.

Putin brought his electioneering machinery to Brexit. Taught by the Americans, the Russians made a difference, just as they did with Don John. Who paid Putin? Given the emotional satisfaction, Putin probably gave a discount, or perhaps he double billed. Some wealthy Brit outraged by the Poles? Currency speculation? Irish Americans? The French kicking England out of their club house? Fury at the old empire? Who could resist the temptation? 

We are witnessing England succumb to Empire Fatigue. The United States follows. 

Material Analysis 2019

Historical Materialism was once all the rage. Freakonomics is historical materialism without Marx. I am giving an overview and then showing how Marx and basic questions about material conditions can enlighten.

Review of Marx

Wading through the invective and gossip of three or four volumes of Marx’s Capital to find the nuggets is tedious:

1. dictatorship of the proletariat
2. labor theory of value
3. class struggle
4. money isn’t capital
5. failure of colonialism
6. Centralization of production leads to unions.
7. business cycle
8. Competition drives down margins in investment and production. Profit requires disaster and  disruption.

You’re welcome. Sorry if I missed any. These ideas have been absorbed into common use. Occasionally an economist makes a living inveighing against or rediscovering one. Bernanke’s bad asset class or Tom Peter’s excellence, for instance. Here is a list of some other market issues:  

1. Winners change the rules.
2.  Parkinson’s Law
3.  Peter Principle
4.  Dilbert Principle
5.  treat vs cure
6. positive reinforcement frustrated by regression to the mean
7. products that create their markets

In fairness Communism is new and these issues also occur in markets:

1. People want things.
2. Some are more equal than others.
3. filthy factories
4. Aldi vs Target
5. responsibility for failure
6. excessive quality
7. standing committees

Socialism is treating constituents as donors. Socialism requires accommodation with Capital. Capital has no honor.  Lyndon Johnson was our socialist president. The few remnants of his programs stand against constant attack. The nature of accommodation defines the socialist. Are you a national socialist or an international socialist?

Where is the money?

Investors seek disruption and avoid disaster. One future disaster is described by the Council of Institutional Investors. The PDF on their website lists over one hundred companies that have unequal voting structure. These neutered shares form a large percentage of the market, indexes and funds.  Ask the Winklevoss brothers about Zuckerberg.

The obvious disruptor is China. The tax cut of 2019 releases capital to invest in China. Republicans were so anxious to free capital that they capped real estate taxes. Real estate taxes are noxious because they fund local services and thus encourage social segregation. The Republicans were following the age old schism between north and south. Southerners regard infrastructure as boondoggle. When the north got free after the civil war they were able to invest in light houses, canals, and railroads. Don John’s trade war with China backs up the boat so more investors can get on.

What is the Vote count?

Don John’s victory is attributed to racism, sexism, and jobs. Yes, but these terms lack content. It is asked why those who voted for Obama then voted for Don John. It wasn’t that many. Obama’s percentage of popular vote was not that great. It was the emergency room doctor; the guy comes to in the emergency room, looks up and says to himself:

-I hope he knows what he’s doing.

We were facing disaster. Stupid wasn’t working, maybe we should try smart. Considering how bad it was and the obvious disparity of ability, the percentage was pathetic. What surprised me was that after the guy got out of the hospital, he was so mad that he took the cast off with a hammer, was in such pain that he got drunk and then drove home.

Obama, from the same neighborhood, has Hugh Hefner's I can’t believe this smile. He is proud of being president and proud of the country for electing him. Like Tom Robinson, he felt compassion and tried to help. Like Tom Robinson this provoked their rage. If Obama cares about them, it means no one else does.

Sexism also lacks emphasis. Don John is a pimp. His entree to Manhattan was young girls and coke. The hospitality industry respects the auxiliary. We didn’t all come from the little house on the prairie, which wasn’t such a great deal either. Some of us came from the little shack by the railroad. The reason Miss Kitty had a heart of gold is because that was mom. Mom got beat on the street and Marshall Dillon walked by, or maybe it was the marshal beating her. Whoever, that was Dad. That’s why she kept you. Coming off the exit ramp you will see a gas station, fast food franchise and a motel.

Don John’s abuse of immigrants has an impact. The fruit rots on the trees. Restaurants have off days. The minimum wage has increased. This woke the Federal Reserve. The Fed sees inflation as wage inflation. Raising interest rates chokes off small business, the business that competes on wages. The reason the Fed has forborne is that they recognize a blip.

What should the Democratic Party do to win the 2020 presidency? Recognize demographics. There is no Hispanic voting bloc. There is no women’s voting bloc.  There is no youth vote. The middle class is tiny. There are only two voting blocs, those who vote their interest and candidates: racist and black. There are numerous triggers but only two actual segments. The black vote deserves more than smiling and playing the saxophone.

Who got paid?

Most presidents had foreign loyalties. When Kennedy said he was a jelly donut he was expressing a loyalty that he shared with his father. Hillary strikes me as an old fashioned French girl. The puzzle is Putin. I can understand the satisfaction of paying the US of us back for installing him. But this is dangerous. He is twisting our tail and he is the leader of a nation. Why would Putin think he is blessed? Putin got paid.

Who paid Putin? The likely candidate is the Health care industry. When Hillary proposed her fetcher bill the Saudis sat down and Ross Perot complained about the service. I haven’t seen that money since Nixon’s drug, I mean trade deal with China. There is such profit that it would be irresponsible for health care, drug and insurance, to let Hillary beat Don John. Electioneering doesn’t change minds, it works the edges, and it matters in tight elections. Why did health care off shore its electioneering? Don John is unreliable and Putin doesn’t report.

Historical Inevitability and United States History

Usually, historical inevitability means the king is great, the empire will last forever and I want to keep my job. The counter story, Noah, Gilgamesh or Ur, is that when you live on a delta surrounded by mountains things may change, someone building a boat in the middle of a plain may not be ridiculous and you should be nice to the hill kids. The first to directly disagree with inevitability as permanence was Adam Smith. Smith liked explanations. Smith said empires inevitably fall because they are inefficient. He attempted to convince England to abandon empire, particularly the American colonies. Wealth of Nations, Smith’s book, is not taught despite its central place in political and economic philosophy.

I think the fall of civilizations is more basic. I was in Cahokia, Illinois at the Native American trash heaps. The museum said that this town only lasted about two or three hundred years and they didn’t know why. Two or three hundred years is a decent run. How long can people stand to live with each other? Generation conflict in hierarchical social structures is destructive. Especially surrounded by trash heaps:
-Let’s put Roger on top of the trash heap.
-Why will he stay up there?
-We’ll tell him he’s in charge.

Karl Marx’s ponderous Capital is taught more frequently than Smith. Read Smith first. Don’t bother with Hegel: things don’t turn out as you expect big deal. Marx speaks to Smith and he expects you to have read the basic work.  Marx’s attack on Riccardo is confused with attacking Smith. Riccardo claims to be a Smith partisan. Riccardo is a turgid waste of time. The subtext of Riccardo is that Smith was right except for a few details, but we know what we are doing and our empire will survive. Marx conscientiously knocks down Riccardo’s arguments, implying that of course this empire will fall as all the others.  

Smith has a clever argument that feudalism was brought down by consumerism. Nobility preferred things over people, leading to Noble’s impoverishment. Marx hates this idea. He goes on about the Crofters who were self-sufficient with their own land and crafts. Manufacturers passed laws forcing Crofters off their land and into factories. Unfortunately Marx adds a comment about now being able to join unions which was used as an excuse for collectivization. Marx was describing an atrocity. Recent events in Soviet Russia and old Communist China confirm Smith’s observation. People want things.

Don’t be smug. The Freakonomics series of books provides examples using Smith’s systemic principles to analyze current events. The authors throw shade on global warming.  I think I understand. James Hansen argued that greenhouse gases would create a logarithmic global warming curve. This was a fairly optimistic prediction. Hansen didn’t appreciate the amount of organic material trapped in permafrost. All curves look similar at the origin. Hansen hates soot. His recommendations are predicated on snow cover. Now that the cover is gone, the recommendations should be reexamined. The Freakonomics chuckleheads said:

-I know curves. That’s Malthus. Heh heh.   

Malthus observed that populations increase exponentially whereas agricultural output had increased linearly. Recognizing the problem, science stepped up and agricultural output has exceeded population growth.

Medicine has also improved. Because antibiotics are fed to livestock, each new antibiotic becomes ineffective. Any scientist who comes up with another antibiotic should be taken out back and thoroughly slapped. They are digging wells in the Sahara. The advances of science lead us to global warming. Malthus was never disproven. The curves will still intersect. Freakonomics is saying that we don’t have to pay attention to scientists because science will save us. 

The check on human population is prosperity. When people are prosperous, they don’t have as many kids. If trends hold, we will plateau around 10 billion. Foul ups mean increase in population. The other issue is footprint. I sneer, quite rightly, at my neighbor driving his F150 to the lake with his jet ski while I drive my government subsidized hybrid to Madison with my road bike for my meet up. But we both have footprint. Freakonomics is being ninnies because the only political philosophy that promises prosperity without consumption is communism. 

Socialism is consumerism on steroids. There is nothing wrong with a socialist having a Ferrari.   We should all have Ferraris. Then we can race.
Just because Capitalism fails doesn’t make Communism inevitable. 

Don’t pester scientists for solutions. The low cost immediate ameliorative for global warming is nuclear winter.

The search for inevitability leads to geography. Geography is destiny because it defines why we hate each other. In my grammar school, the teachers divided the playgrounds between boys and girls. Once we knew the sides, we fought. The people of the delta, the people of the mountains, the people of the plains, the people of the coast, the people of the woodlands, the people of the desert, we all hate each other. 

Japan and Korea hate each other. Looking at the globe, this is easy to understand. Japan’s isolation exacerbated the problem. Every foreign contact was a typhus outbreak. When the United States busted open Japan and demanded trade, Japan reacted by mimicking our worst features. They chose a state religion and conquered parts of Russia, China and Korea. My greatest fear of North Korea is that they will provoke Japan. You would think they’d know better. 

China and Vietnam hate each other. Vietnam is gorgeous, one long nonstop beach, mountains, delta, farms, jungle, forest.  Say Vietnam was adjacent to the United States and despite our best efforts was still an independent nation that spoke Vietnamese. Everything the Chinese do is with the objective of someday being successful enough to take Vietnam. Vietnam knows this.

England, France and Germany hate each other. Newton stole Calculus from Leibniz. Leibniz was dependent on patronage and eviscerated by Candide. 

In the United States, North and South hate each other. The North is right.

Recently agriculture has been held responsible for warfare. A male genetic bottleneck was discovered about 8000 years ago around the start of farming. This corresponds to finding ritually slaughtered groups of people. I think sedentary populations activated the human lekking reflex. Women selected the same father for their children. This would have aggravated the spread of venereal disease. The slaughters were response to epidemic. Dementia, particularly venereal dementia, is often characterized by a demeanor that can be both terrifying and infuriating. 

War is excused as sharpening technological development. We are discussing inevitability. What matters is more difficult. Competition for sales leads to human development. But competition leads to collusion. War is seen as an antidote to human stasis. But war itself competes for capital investment. Marx spent an entire volume pounding in excruciating detail the difference between capital and money. The reason that stocks do well in inflation is that money and capital are different. War is a reaction to human progress and the, may I say it, inevitable social development described by Marx. It may not be communism, but it is change. Does it matter? Yo Helot. 

Military industry has gained prominence as a cause for war. Since military industry competes in the capital markets it has retarded consumer industry. Because of the concentration of military consumers, military capital investment employs less people making it inflationary.  It is argued that military research is more productive. I will concede that government research is more productive.

The major cause of war is atrocity.  Different peoples favor different atrocities. Starvation is favored by the Russians and the British. Part of Adam Smith’s disrepute is that the British used market forces as their all-purpose explanation for atrocities.  If you see a smaller vulnerable group provoked to hopeless conflict, the British are egging them on:  Kurds, Baltics, etc. the Lawrence of Arabia syndrome.  The Japanese renounced war when they realized they could no longer see their enemies eyes as they were killed. USA is known for bombing and military aid. 

Military aid is particularly disgusting. Living under a dictatorship is bad but it doesn’t have to be impossible. Eventually even the dumbest colonel notices that if people can go to work in the morning and return to their families in the evening the colonel will get a bigger take and may even be allowed to escape and enjoy their Delaware bank account.  Unless someone gives the colonel a few billion and tells them to kill the terrorists or whatever:
-Sure them too.
We have opened the gates of hell throughout the world.


I’m tempted to say materialist, let us take a systemic view of American colonial trade:

Imports	Exports
slaves	gold
indentured servants	silver
manufactured goods	land
earthworms	sugar
Honey Bees	cotton
Small Pox	tobacco
horses	peppers
Measles	chocolate
malaria	syphilis
apples	beaver
tea	potatoes

There are better lists, see Colombian Exchange. By land I do not mean that soil was dragged to Europe but rather the concept of land. Land rights and sovereignty over land are precious.

The forests we see today are far different than pre-colonial forests because of the European earthworms.

Smith derides the Spanish obsession with gold and silver, just creating holes in the ground. Keynes makes an allusion to burying money so people can dig it back up.

If you were to approach anyone throughout the world at the time of the American Revolution and ask for the news, they probably would not mention us. The issue of the time was whether France or England would rule the world.

The American English colonial population was around two and a half million including slaves, excluding Native Americans.  The population of England was less sure, say eight million. Britain’s anthems avow that they are a monarchy, they are not slaves, they are lucky and they run it. Britain’s opposition to slavery is due to their experience with the Barbary pirates.

George Washington was Virginian. Virginia’s principal export was tobacco. Prosperity was a consequence of how large your tobacco plantation was. This led to fierce inbreeding which led to an intense lekking environment governed by ostentatious display. Washington was a poor relation somewhere in the hierarchy to a good marriage to a plantation owner. Having a small estate, Washington was smart enough to earn money and land as a surveyor. The irony of surveying large tracts of wilderness while owning small holdings must have been obvious. His gentleman’s status entitled him to a paying military commission in the colonial forces. The French and British were engaged in a little bump and shove. The real point was to get Native American tribes to fight each other. Surrounded by the forests of Pennsylvania, Washington went mad and murdered a French officer.   

Nothing comes from nowhere. If Washington had not killed Jumonville we would still be part of the commonwealth. The subsequent French response made it clear that Native Americans, settlers, and soldiers died, not gentlemen. Washington’s force was subdued and Washington signed a confession. This started the Seven Years’ War, a global conflict involving all the colonial powers. As usual, burgeoning population threatened the existing social order. Jumonville perfectly crystallized the threat felt by the nobility and gentility.  In continental America the French were primarily fur traders, with few coastal harbors. So the British won. The French were depending on their strong European continental presence to win sufficient victories to bargain for their lost colonies, didn’t happen. The British navy and continental treachery frustrated the French. The British had expended men and fortune holding their colonies. Now was the time to balance the books. Faced with paying for their war, Britain’s opposition to slavery, and squeezed by the British loans and controlled prices, the colonies chose treason.

Robert Morris financed the rebellion. He knew that even with his great wealth, he would be squeezed next.


Tories, loyal subjects of the king who believed in paying their debts and opposing slavery were tortured in front of their family and neighbors and robbed of their land and possessions.


Washington’s military career was not as prosperous as he had hoped. The British were unhappy about Jumonville and a few excesses. But he had enough success to marry well, which was the point. His eventual commission as head of the Continental army was due more to his social prestige and position than his military background. The miracle was that ex slaves, farmers, and rabble followed the foppish Virginia plantation owner. They must have shared his avarice. He had learned to keep his mouth shut.

America sent our best man, Benjamin Franklin, to the fecal encrusted palace of Versailles. The French obliged with a few mercenaries, adventurers, funds and gunpowder. Washington skimmed the French funds for his plantations and land acquisition. Eisenhower was a genius, Butler won the civil war, but Washington, for all his faults, was the last American general who understood attrition. Washington must avoid a victory that only changes British command structure and strategy. He wants the British generals he has, thank you very much. Another constraint was the gunpowder drought. The English had gunpowder and the colonials didn’t. If France had stayed out of the conflict the colonials and British would have bled each other white and France might have both continents. By another miracle Franklin danced his silly dance, wore his silly hat, and dragged France into the rebellion.

France sent General Rochambeau and Admiral de Grasse. Trained from early youth to their professions they fought a coordinated land sea battle that defeated the British at Yorktown.
Washington didn’t want to go anywhere south. He rightly feared slave insurrection. The South’s failure in all its conflicts is due, in part, to the necessity of maintaining garrison to forestall such rebellions. The British, as they do, were stirring up the indentured servants and slaves. They enlisted a few, but if they had armed the slaves the British might have won. Washington was dragged to Yorktown with Robert Morris footing the bill.

With the war won, Washington made his worst mistake. Franklin was exhausted. Washington sent Jefferson to replace him as ambassador to France. Thomas Jefferson was a master of disingenuous sanctimony. When they had to perfume the pig: defend treason, bankruptcy, and slavery, Jefferson was the guy. Washington just wanted to get Jefferson as far away as possible.

It was time to settle accounts. The French King would get the tobacco concession. Everyone was in hock, but with trade moving it was possible they could pull it off. The Virginia planters including Jefferson, American excises, Robert Morris, Haym Salomon, and the French monarchy would all be put square, or at least able to front. Then Jefferson and his best friend Lafayette, American war hero and French minister of trade, pissed on the deal. Why? Why would Jefferson do that? The Virginia planters were ruined. Jefferson was ruined. There were no tobacco excises. Robert Morris, Haym Salomon, and the French monarchy were ruined. Why would anyone trade with this new country that couldn’t even do the tobacco deal? From Jefferson’s point of view within the Virginia hierarchy if everyone is bust then he is equal.
-Not with my Tabachy.


With little excise coming in, Morse and Hamilton decided to tax whiskey. They didn’t want their loans defaulted on. If you were a subsistence farmer in the middle of nowhere the only good worth dragging over the mountains to market was whiskey. The large distilleries didn’t appreciate the competition, so the tax was to their benefit. The farmers resented a tax on the poorest that cut their one source of tools and supplies. Some of the farmers were Washington’s tenants but they had long since realized that he couldn’t come out and collect the rent. So Washington didn’t mind enforcing the tax.


After putting down Shay’s Whiskey Rebellion the United States had enough income to borrow on. The British were amused:
-Didn’t pay us the last time.

Backstabbing Jefferson, having escaped the French revolution, told the French to hold off until Washington was out of office. The delegation came back from France claiming Talleyrand wanted his beak wet. Two-term Washington started as France’s man. Since he couldn’t get the loan, he should grab his hat and not let the door hit him on the way out. Washington forestalls Jefferson by getting his stooge, John Adams, in as president.


Washington died struggling to maintain his plantation. Under Washington we had begun to support England’s antislavery efforts. In part to oppose Barbary pirates. In part because it made domestic slaves more valuable and gave American pirates new opportunities.


Adams, having to choose from the French or the British, goes to the Dutch. At that point the Dutch are a two-hundred-year-old republic. The Americans were kiting, or debt consolidation. The Dutch were pirates. Send a boat out, if it comes back, they’re rich, what happens in between who knows? Dutch share the most popular religious belief, Calvinism, that the universe has an ethical plan. Gangsters like that you got what was coming to you. One of the many splits in Dutch society was between the adherents of Britain and France. The supporters of France also favored America. This division helped Adams get the loan.


Once Adams had the loan he scuttles back to the British for a trade deal. The French are already furious that after they saved America and lost their monarchy, Washington went neutral on them. This left the French talking to Jefferson. To ensure passage of their treaty, the British buy Adams’ midterm congressional elections. With Adams obviously in England’s pocket, the French attack American shipping. America then has to raise its own navy and army, so much for neutral.

The Dutch were widely ridiculed for their factious society. Perhaps it was this example or Adams’ sensitivity to criticism that leads to the Alien and Sedition acts. Adams still saw himself as part of the British Empire.


The paranoia of Adams was justified. Daniel Boone was outraged that his Spanish land titles were not honored; Spain and America were not at war. Billy Caldwell, a British- Potawatomi fur trader in the Chicago area wound up running a Potawatomi tribe in Iowa. Whenever someone proclaims their good qualities: honesty, loyalty, courage, thrift, sobriety, virtue, modesty, or patriotism, consider why the subject was broached. Adams had no right to patriotism.


Adams’ repression elected Jefferson. The United States population was over 5 million with slaves. France had almost 30 million. The French:
-Freedom for us and nobody else,
See The Marseilles were now ruled by Napoleon. Because of Dutch factions, France had conquered Holland. At this point France was allied with Spain. Since France owned Holland, Napoleon forgave France’s Dutch debt. How can you be unjust to Calvinists? In the Louisiana Purchase Napoleon cancelled eighteen million francs of French debt. Some of this debt may have been owned by the citizens or monarchy of the Kingdom of France. Some may have been owed the citizens or government of earlier French republics. Some debt may have belonged to the citizens or government of the Dutch Republic. None of these lenders would have minded if the USA had stiffed Napoleon. It is difficult to collect debts without the support of a government. Debt default is one of the reasons for revolution and conquest.

As to the land, Louisiana, whose title had passed back and forth between Spain and France, USA was here and France was there. Haiti had just kicked Napoleon’s butt. Napoleon was a general, not an admiral; he wasn’t coming back. There may have been the occasional loyal French subject, whether colonial or Native American, but the issue would be far more immediate than a distant treaty, certainly not worth the expenditure. Everyone remarks how advantageous the Louisiana Purchase was to America and how Napoleon got the best he could, given his situation. Why do the deal at all?

The only accomplishment was funding Napoleon’s assault on Europe. Why would Jefferson do that? He did it because he was Jefferson. It wasn’t just payback to Adams. The Louisiana Purchase was yet another example of American military aid.

The British, infuriated by the USA turning Napoleon loose and our support of slavery interdict trade leading to the war of 1812. It was generally recognized that the import of slaves subsidized piracy. We no longer had British protection against Barbary pirates and paid the pirates' tribute.
The USA anthem says we are free and brave, and we will survive and get those slaves and indentured servants.


The overseas Dutch carried on their financial affairs throughout the world, including the United States. If their money was good enough, they’re good enough.


Historical Inevitability: I give you Washington, Franklin, Adams and that sanctimonious shit, Jefferson.

Writer Club Introduction

-Melville, why do you use those goofy words? Cervantes, enough with the flowery language. Joyce, what are you doing? Shakespeare, you can’t just make up words, speak English. Twain, does historical context justify child abuse?

When you come to writers club you will receive our raw first impression. We may not get it. One of our authors wrote a lovely piece about Spellman College. I felt I was there. She fell in with an agent who had a set demographic. Watching the metamorphosis of her piece was heart breaking.  Today, just as anyone can be President, everyone can publish. This is a problem. We can’t be your editor. We can be a test audience.

We are fussy about grammar, syntax, spelling and quotation marks. We like consistent point of view, linear exposition, flow, simple language and show not tell. We often don’t agree. We are here as a service. If you don’t like a ground rule, change it for your review. I prefer someone read my piece. That allows me to observe the audience and hear the awkward parts. Unless it is a thesis, there is no point in answering criticism.  We try to avoid judgement of the material. I showered scorn on the argument that headaches were psychosomatic.

We are well aware of the thrall of writing, its vulnerability and that writer’s block is sanity.

Welcome.

Ether Revisited

A deficiency of blogging is that subsequent posts supersede the originals. I use this blog as a Pensieve so I don’t modify posts. Instead I have adopted the convention of revisited in the title.

The prosaic explanation of dark matter is that it is composed of Neutrinos. I am a fan of the prosaic. Whatever it is there has to be a lot of it. It has to have mass. I believe it has to propagate light. Does it have the sole property of propagation? Does it propagate in cooperation with other materials?  Does it only show this ability in vacuum?

Since light bends in gravity I am unable to think of a distinction between inert photons, static neutrinos and current theories. Can we create, however faint, the laser affect within vacuum? If the ether material lases it should maximize at specific frequencies, identifying the particles.

Christine suggested dissipated gravity waves as an explanation of the chatter.

Calling It for Ether

Ether has long been used for explaining the propagation of light. Aristotle discussed Ether. Given electromagnetic waves, the implication that light has to propagate through something seemed reasonable.  Ether went the way of phlogiston and caloric when Michelson and Morley split a light beam, then bounced the two perpendicular rays back to each other and found no difference in diffraction. If it can’t be measured then forget about it.

The Dark Matter theory accounts for the difference between observed mass and the behavior of galaxies by positing an entity that exists in a vacuum yet has mass. Dark Matter seems a misnomer as it allows for the transmission of light. Exists in a vacuum, has mass and propagates light, sounds like Ether to me.

Abandoning Ether leads to the wave particle duality and quantum theories.  Why is it that a child without any apparent ability of concentration or interest can intently spend their entire playground time pouring sand through a sieve?  The very purposeless futility of it provides its own satisfaction.  This tremendous sense of stasis is the most terrifying human quality.  When one examines failed theories it is tempting to think that there should be some intuitive way to determine correctness. This thinking, argument by metaphor, drives scientists’ nuts. There are people who are always wrong and love senseless activity. I have sympathy for the other child who walks over and hits the first one with a toy shovel. If you must talk Alternate Universe, you should not disparage Ether.

Mass without volume seems nonsense, mini black holes? Until you examine the other theories.

Another bizarre theory is explaining the red shift with expanding universe. 

Occasionally we look up and see the sun and the moon together in the sky. We can see that the two bodies are round and that the sun reflects off the moon. Why did this seem mysterious?  Until we observe that the sun’s reflection on the moon does not correspond to the sun’s position in the sky. How did we figure out anything?  Nature is duplicitous.

Ether or no, gravity bends light. The light of our observations has been through innumerable gravity events, culminating with being drawn in by our own sun. Such observations deserve skepticism. Or Ether causes the red shift.

Recently the Michelson/Morley experiment has been extended to discover gravity waves. An extremely large and sensitive instrument, it chattered.  Two of them were built to compare the results. Eventually the expected badumbump of the gravity wave occurred on both instruments. But when the results were examined it was found that the chatter matched as well. Perhaps the chatter is a consequence of distant dissipated gravity waves, or Ether.

Gas Operated

I recently attempted to drive clutch again. For those who can, it is perfectly easy to depress the clutch while pressing the gas. For the rest of us, it is difficult. Without automatic transmission the roads would be far safer, bicycles and public transportation far more popular and spouses more faithful.  Whether or not you do so, if you can’t drive stick you are not a competent human being and shouldn’t have a car.

Guns today are different than they were. That is why all the quick draw McGraw’s and shootemup  Joes are out there. I don’t mind the people who have been raised with guns and understand the culture and behavior that requires. But those people are a very small group, and you probably won’t hear from them.

All guns are artillery in the sense that their projectiles have a parabolic trajectory. In order to have any range bullets have to go up and come down. It is horrifying to see the Drill kids, called that because they are proud that they don’t know how to hold a gun and hold it like a power drill. All guns have to have an upward inclination in order to achieve any range, so they kick up. In the past guns were heavy, in part to counter this recoil.

Now if you purchase a 22 caliber rifle for your twelve year old. It doesn’t have much recoil and if she shoots it outside she probably won’t need ear protection. But once she starts shooting 22 long rifle rounds, with greater acceleration, she will notice it. Larger than that, either the round or the acceleration is less fun. To circumvent this all military rifles, from the M1 on, have a hole in the top of the barrel near the muzzle.  The point of this is to counteract and lessen the recoil. This means that the guns no longer have sufficient recoil to reliably drive the reloading mechanism. The solution is to take the escaping gas from the hole at the top of the gun and use that to push the mechanism loading the next round. That is what gas operated means.

This is why all these morons and kids can shoot these heavy rounds without grabbing sky. The problem is that legislating gas operated is telling them they have to drive clutch and they are big pussies. But at least if you want to shut down the mansplainers, just say “gas operated”.

Taxes

Milton Friedman made his living arguing that the Federal Reserve caused the 1929 stock market crash and thus the Great Depression by jacking around discount rates.  Economic argument is difficult. We cannot even prove that the stock market crash caused the Great Depression. But his point that the Fed should be considerate, respectful and measured is well taken. As any driver can tell you, when you don’t know what you are doing, it is better to do it slowly.

Fiscal policy should be deliberate as well.  When there is uncertainty it is difficult to plan or invest. The new tax law dumps everything into the chipper. People keep talking about individual effect or ethic. The real problem is that we have no idea what the cumulative impact will be. That is bad. What will be the systemic impact on America? This law assumes instability. It was passed in the belief that many issues will be addressed in subsequent legislation. What a wonderful fetcher, how can Congress not shake that money tree? We have no idea as to impact or what the law will be a year from now. Previous tax law represented all the various interests that lead to it. Those interests remain. They will demand satisfaction.

There is a recent example. Ronald Reagan, a Hollywood actor, was incensed that he paid taxes at 90%. Obviously there were ways for him to reduce that burden. He invested in real estate and took advantage of depreciation and all the rest. What upset him was that his employers, the studio owners, had the capital gains deduction. When they bought and sold the studios to each other they then started from 50% times 90% or 45%. It wasn’t fair that he had to start higher because he did the work. When he was elected he got the maximum down to 28% from 70% and eliminated the capital gains deduction.

Since everyone started from 28% a lot less tax was collected. This combined with the savings and loan fiasco left George HW Bush with a hot steaming mess. Fortunately class tells and Bush, the statesman, lied and saved our country. He wasn’t reelected, but Clinton was smart enough to keep things as Bush left them. The Clinton recovery began under Bush. Bush really had a 12 year term. Of course once Bill Gates wanted to sell his stock, the capital gains deduction was restored in 1997. The new maximum tax rate is at 37% down from 39%.

I despise tax deductions. Just as we shouldn’t tell people how to invest, we shouldn’t tell them how to live either. The state real estate tax deduction is the worst. It is wrong to subsidize social segregation. But this reform has already led to a state tax windfall soon to be followed by a state tax drought.

It appears that Republicans want to end everything Obama, including the recovery. I hesitate to ascribe motive to anything so mindless, but everyone wants to sell out.  What opportunity is driving this smash and grab? It must be China.

The tax bill will fail in the courts. As venal as Republicans are they have left an out. Double taxation on earnings and income is forbidden. This is fundamental tax law and is used to justify foreign tax credits.  Including state income tax in the tax cap will be changed. It would be reasonable for the courts to simply specify that state income tax is a separate deduction and is not capped. Perhaps the adults will create the tax form that way. Then the states will move taxes from real estate and sales to income. The change in state policy could be beneficent, one might expect state legislatures to more fairly apportion services. More likely we will become southern, charter schemes and vouchers. The Supreme Court has two principle values: expediency and privilege. Faced with a difficult law that threatens privilege the court will remove the cap. Then they will throw out the whole law to give themselves cover. It will be a close decision but judges own houses.

This is a cruel charade to shake down investors who want to own Chinese assembly plants. Can Senators look investors in the eye and claim that they don’t understand double taxation of income?

If you wind up paying 37% in taxes, you should throw a party. You have more money than you know what to do with. Most people know what to do with their money. The current idea is that you should have about 120,000 in walking around money. If you need more than that you should check in and make use of the medical deduction. The rest of your money should be in a corporation, profit or nonprofit, stock or pass through. Just as every poor person needs a church every rich person should have a business. There’s a lot of ways these things are structured but the point of the tax law is to limit your spending money and keep you invested.

Vegas Conspiracy

Danley, Paddock’s girlfriend, appears to be receiving undue attention. Perhaps because she and Campos are the only ones involved who aren’t white. Vegas police haven’t presented well. I’m thinking that Reno 911 is more real than satire. Paddock seems to have given Danley the opportunity for a fat lawsuit. Maybe it’s just that all parties are concerned with liability but there is smoke. Did Paddock belong to somebody?

Odd that Paddocks tax returns have not yet been released. I doubt that he was operational, those guys been there, done that. He could have been in a support function.  The only operational goofs I can think of are Oswald and McVeigh.

Some of the smoke is Paddock as “professional gambler”. Supposedly, with comps, if you play big slots you can profit. This is why Vegas has so many rich gamblers and the casinos are broke. When gamblers play for comps they identify themselves to the casino. Everyone knows the machines are throttled. There is nothing illegal about this. When the house has volume it makes sense to throttle forward the machines, more big payouts and dings, to generate excitement. Likewise low volume is an opportunity to tighten the throttle and improve margins. Once a player is identified it is possible to tailor the throttle strategy to that player, keep them playing, and milk them for maximum return. It is a natural AI application. This would be legal as long as the percentage payout would be over the required amount. So Paddock was a chump. Did Paddock change his life style and investments only to realize he had been suckered?

It is likely that Paddock was a victim of child abuse. His dad was caught when Paddock was seven. Bad people, such as his father, often do bad things.

However Paddock got his stake and whatever his gullibility, he entered the real estate market at an auspicious time. In a boom market a persistent fool may do far better than a cautious investor.

The Korean War was voted down because of casualties and supply scandals. In Vietnam the military kept casualties down and when stories of the ArmaLite rifles jamming came out the military reacted with hysteria. To this day soldiers regard a rifle jam as a personal failure. Now that these rifles are widely available, you can see shooters clearing their jams while insisting that their guns are reliable.

-Look how easy it is to clear the jam.

Once a gun starts jamming it is best to clean it. It is now obvious that the guns jam because they are designed to minimize recoil. Why did the shooter have so many rifles? Because he knew that they would get hot and jam. Why did he stop shooting? Initially I thought maybe all his guns had jammed. But mass killers often become disgusted with the reality and are frightened of capture.

If you must have conspiracy, Campos, the hotel security responder, might have shot Paddock. Given Vegas he would have deemed it better to avoid attention.

Why is there so much violence? Violence is endemic. Constant immigration takes its toll. Our violence is quantitatively less than other places but it doesn’t have the same level of institutional acceptance. Why so much shooting? Shooting has gotten easier; the equipment is improved. The lone shooter reminds me of domestic violence. They are attacking people because they feel isolated, abandoned and betrayed.

Stump Treatment

The slush piles are brimming with Trump stories. If I were a reader I would filter out anything with Trump in it, just as I do click bait. The premise for this one is that the Russians are disgusted with the lack of return on their investment. Envision Putin ranting. Not sure who to cast for Putin. Perhaps a computer generated image. He could sue but the argument is that his persona is in the public domain. Do the same thing with Trump. The lawsuit would be good publicity. If we can’t say Trump, say Stump, Putin; Putting. The joke is that Putin is speaking extremely vulgar Russian, or even breaking into heavily accented English but the sub titles are very proper. Maybe this will keep a PG rating. The title is rolling while Putin screams obscenities. 

-We can’t even get his fucking briefing books.

-There’s no actionable intelligence.

-We have the briefing books.

-You ugly ass wipe, that’s not the point. That fat shit can’t read.

-What use is he, if he can’t read?

I’m on it.

-You know what you’re on? I’ll tell you what you’re on…

Next scene is the Jefferson Memorial. Spies always meet at the memorial, typical Russian agent speaking to his American asset. The Russian sounds Russian; the American has a strong regional accent.

RA-We need a school teacher.

AA-What?

RA-Reading, they have to be able to teach anyone to read.

AA-I’ll ask around.

Scene of school teacher in second grade, things are going poorly. I see her as black. Get some teacher focus groups, opportunity for school teacher jokes, reading jokes, ADHD jokes, dyslexia jokes, spy jokes, Russian jokes, and harassment jokes.

School teacher walks into a bar:

ST-I’ll have a martini. I’ll have a martini with an olive in it. I’ll have a martini with gin and vermouth.

The American Asset hands her an envelope.

AA - Ten thousand, cash.

She puts the envelope in her bra.

ST - Just you?

AA-I work for the Russian government, we need a school teacher. Trump has to read.

ST - This all I get?

AA - One hundred thousand when you are done.

ST-You can get me in the White House?

AA - No problem. When do you start?

ST-I’ll get to Washington tomorrow, I don’t usually educate adults.

AA-Issue?

ST-No.

School teacher walks into principal’s office.

ST - Taking three weeks’ vacation starting tomorrow.

P- You can’t.

ST – Four weeks.

P-Who will sub?

ST - You?

P-I’ll get you. You won’t have a job when you get back.

ST - Fuck the job.

P-What about the kids?

ST - Fuck the kids.

School teacher talking to her class:

-I am going to miss all of you beautiful children, but it’s only for a short time, while I learn to be a better teacher for you. Meanwhile you will have the principal teaching you. He knows so much. I know you will be just as considerate of him as you are of me. It has been a few years since he has had the joy of actually teaching a class so you will have to help him in the beginning. This will be so much fun for you.

WH scene:

The WH aide is describing the atmosphere of harassment.

ST-I’ve taught eighth grade.

Oval Office:

ST - Give me your alphabet.

Trump: This is bullshit, look how far I’ve gotten without it.

ST-alphabet.

T-singsong alphabet.

ST-vowels.

T-AEIOU

ST-and?

T?

ST-sometimes Y.

T-I before e except after c.

ST-That’s right. What’s this? Here read this speech.

T-I just put it in Word and it reads it to me.

ST-You have a good memory. Read it for me.

T-The words fall apart.

ST - Look out the window.

T-What?

ST – Look out the window, tell me what you see.

T- Bushes, somebodies head, the fence, columns.

Trump loses interest starts looking around the room.

ST-What do you see in the room?

T-My desk, what’s the point?

ST - Look at the window again.

T- Still bushes.

ST-Don’t look out the window.

Trump looks out the window.

ST-Don’t look at your speech.

T- The purpose of this speech is to…

ST- That’s good. Look away when you lose it; then look back.

T - Explain our position in Iran. This is a stupid speech.

ST – It is stupid.  Keep at it.

Trump looks away at every word.

T- The…United…States…Must…Show… a…firm…resolve…I can’t keep doing this.

ST-This is how you start. It isn’t easy, keep at it.

T- To ensure that Iran does not return to the nuclear option. Together…This is our policy? The whole thing is just a shakedown of Saudi Arabia.

ST-Isn’t this easier than remembering?

T-I’m not going to say this shit.

ST - well no. You’ve made some progress. I’m leaving this book here. I got it from your library, it belonged to Kennedy.

T-What is it?

ST-What does it say?

T- Hornblower? Ship of the line.

ST-I don’t want you reading this until tomorrow. You might hurt your eyes. Wait for me and we will look at it together. OK?

Or maybe do product placement on dyslexia software, or the Russians can bring in an optometrist.

Melania talking to a man with his feet up on a desk:

MT-He’s reading a book.

Man-He’s not tweeting.

MT yells-He’s reading a book.

Man-I’ll get on it.

Develop Melania Trump, show her running White House, deciding policy.

School Teacher walks into Oval Office holding another book.

ST-Let’s start on Hornblower.

T- Read it.

ST-Did not. How did it end?

T-He got captured.

ST-You read the end.

T-He isn’t much of a hero.

ST- Whoa, comprehension? No he isn’t.

T-They give this to kids?

ST-More in the library, it’s a series.

T on the computer-It wants a password, I already logged on.

ST looks over his shoulder- Try your logon password. Washington?

T-What’s this?

ST-A PDF, must’ve scanned something.

T-What is this?

ST- Handwriting.

T- How do you read it?

ST- Write something for me.

Trump prints Fuck You.

ST- Do it again, but don’t raise your pencil.

Trump does it; then reads the screen – I had no idea it would come to this. I just wanted to save my plantation. Before you judge, you are now in the same predicament.

Trump has trouble with predicament - I’m reading out loud.

ST-That’s how you memorize. When you want to remember, read it aloud.

T-I don’t want to memorize all of it.

T keeps reading – Washington is an asshole.

ST- Got another book from the library. Jefferson owned this.

T-What is it?

ST-What does it say?

T-Wealth of Nations, what’s it about?

ST- about 700 pages, economics.

T- I’m reading this first.

ST-OK

School teacher at Jefferson memorial with white house aide:

WHA-He’s tweeting about presidents, Washington asshole, Adams stooge, Jefferson back stabbing SOB.

ST-He’s reading something they each left for the next presidents, in handwriting.

WHA- Here’s your 100,000 check.

ST putting it in her bra-Should be a million.

WHA-Stick around, I’ll ask.

ST- Maybe I’ll give him Black Like Me.

WHA - Uncle Tom’s Cabin.

ST- Not Malcolm X.

WHA- Mockingbird.

Two suits, one is fiddling with an Epipen:

-Why do the Russians want him to read?

-Commies are into that.

-They’re not commies.

-Whatever.

School teacher walks into the Oval Office:

T-Eisenhower was smart.

ST-No progress with Smith?

T-They had corn in England?

ST-Corn means cheapest grain, horse feed, like gasoline today.

T-He’s talking about inflation?

ST-Yes

T- 300 years ago.

ST-Yes

T-Isn’t this just the market place is great?

ST-You haven’t read it. He wasn’t stupid.

T-Briefing books suck. Eisenhower said they were stupid. What’s after Smith?

ST-Marx

T- Commie?

ST- Yes, you already kind of know his stuff.

T- After that?

ST- Keynes. Then Samuelson’s textbook.

T- Problems?

ST - Well yeah.

T-That’s it?

ST- Mandelbrot, I guess. He wrote a short one about finance. Graham and Dodd

T-Why should I know economics?

ST-So they don’t game you.

T-Everybody’s bluffing.

ST-Yes

T-I thought you’d bring in Mockingbird.

ST-Couldn’t find it in your library. I don’t think knowledge cures racism.

T-Thank you

ST-You’re welcome. Are we done?

T-I think I need to see you for a while.  This network doesn’t have much.

ST - Really?

T-They want me to install something.

ST-You have to trust them.

T-Why wasn’t it installed already?

ST-Don’t know.

T-You didn’t start me with the first Hornblower.

ST- No

T-I got it from the library.

ST-good

Include bits where the teacher tries to give socialization training. Anne Frank’s Diary, Huckleberry Finn, University of Pennsylvania joke

Have a late night host do a bit on Trumps tweets about the presidents. Give them script credit.

There is a big argument in a White House corridor. People are gathering to watch. The school teacher is rubber necking on the edge of the crowd. A suit swings at the school teacher with the Epipen.  The teacher sees it, grabs his hand before he hits her, stamps on his instep with her high heel, switches hands on her grip, and hits him in the elbow twisting his arm as she kicks out his knee. The teacher grabs the Epipen and stabs the suit with it, walking off holding the pen. People start to notice the man collapsed behind them.

School Teacher talking to White House Aide at the aides’ desk:

WHA- Colyer had a heart attack.

ST drops the Epipen in the aides’ trash-I was supposed to have one.

WHA-You took Colyer? He’s NSA.

ST - Playground duty. Trump wants me to hang out. Million?

WHA-It’s approved. Up to you when you leave

Bit about Trump telling secrets and no one believes him.

Oval Office, Trump alone. Obama’s voice comes on background. Maybe Obama would do it, now that the letter is public. It would be fun to have Bush senior give advice to Clinton; maybe he would do his own.  Doubt you could get Carter. Bush junior started doing this publicly, my guess is that it goes all the way back.

O-reads his letter.

T tweets- What a prig.

School Teacher walks in.

T-Obama is a prig.

ST-He’s a good student

T-What I said. I found a cool directory.

ST-They want you to know something.

T- Not sure.

ST-What will you write to your successors?

T- Something short.

ST-I think you have a lot to say.

T- Tell them to read Eisenhower, FDR; Hoover. Teach you’re fired. I’m very grateful to you. My time is valuable. You have a nice figure.

The school teacher leaves.

School Teacher at White House Aides’ desk:

T- Fired.

WHA hands ST envelope, ST looks at it and puts it in her bra.

ST walking down White House hall. Secret Service agent takes out pistol and shoots her in the head. Checks her pulse, puts down the gun as people come out of their offices.

SSA- Ohmigod, it just went off. I was just checking my gun.

News show, talking heads:

-A school teacher was killed by accident today at the White House.

-Was she working there?

-Advisory position.

-Conspiracy?

-Conspiracy to kill a school teacher?

In the television series the school teacher would live, giving a different lesson each episode. In the musical this would be a crescendo. Merchandising includes flashcards.

Jefferson Memorial, White House Aide is sobbing, comforted by Russian Agent.

RA-It’s not our first school teacher.

Trump is talking at a rally:

T-Kennedy Killing? Everybody knows that…

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