US Stooges Who Had to Change Up

This is a list of leaders who were assisted by the US and were problematic:

1.Adolph Hitler

Avrill Harriman

2.Ho Chi Minh

Charles Fenn

3.Sadam Hussein

Kim Roosevelt

4.Osama Bin Laden

Michael G. Vickers

5.Manuel Noreiga

George HW Bush

6.Vladmir Putin

Madeleine Jana Korbel Albright

7.Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi

Kim Roosevelt

8.Ngo Dinh Diem

John F. Kennedy

9.Mobutu Sese Seko

Larry Devlin

10.Rafael Trujillo

Major James J. MacLean

11.Juan Bosch

Richard Naradof Goodwin

12.Gulbuddin Hekmatyar

Michael G. Vickers

13.Jalaluddin Haqqani

Michael G. Vickers

14.Boris Yeltsin

Warren Christopher

15.Jean-Bertrand Aristide

Ira Kurzban

16.Victoriano Huerta

Henry Lane Wilson

17.Syngman Rhee

Millard Preston Goodfellow

18.Husni al-Za'im

Kim Roosevelt

19.Gamal Abdel Nasser

Kim Roosevelt

20.Ferdinand Marcos

Lyndon Johnson

21.Napoleon Bonaparte

Thomas Jefferson

22.Pol Pot

Michael Eiland

23.Joseph Stalin

Avrill Harriman

24.Whitey Bulgur

John Connolly

25.Jeffrey Epstein

    William Barr

26.William O'Neal

Roy Martin Mitchell

 

 

Just a sampling, in no order. Notice the repeating patterns.

Kermit Roosevelt didn’t like his name. Hard to believe now that we support fundamentalists, but before Carter some, such as Roosevelt, thought Socialism the antidote to Communism. Unless they were nationalizing.

Stooge is a subset of chump. Some of them chumped their handlers, at least for a while.

Kennedy signed off on Diem as senator and then discarded him as president, another common pattern.

CIA has a wonderful apologia for supporting Ho Chi Minh at the end or WWII; it doesn’t mention that we were bombing Vietnam into starvation from our bases in China and aircraft carriers at the same time. As so often in effect if not explicitly, in support of the Vietnamese rebellion against the Japanese and French.

Another pattern is recruiting the loyal stooge to the charismatic leader.    

Personality vs Materialism

 

Historian’s emphasis on leadership and the decisions leaders make ignores the ordinary material facts surrounding those decisions. These histories of leadership over circumstance are favored by those in power and their subordinates. Material conditions are ignored in favor of personalities. This personification obscures the obvious. But there are moments in history where individuals made the difference. Here are some possibilities:

Another obscured area is who the decision makers are. The Hamilton musical based on Ron Chernow’s biography attempts to redress this by giving glory to a functionary. But ignores that Alexander Hamilton was working for Robert Morris. Hamilton was on Washington’s staff, representing Morris. Thank heavens he was there to summon Morris when Washington, scared of heading south, was about to attack New York rather than Yorktown. Morris paid to transport Washingtons army to Yorktown. Imagine how the French would have felt if we hadn’t supported them at Yorktown. Washington was the Virginia general in the north. Benjamin Lincoln was the Massachusetts general in the south and Lincoln got his butt handed to him by the English General Henry Clinton.

Washington had a penchant for losing battles. The Patriots victories were usually under other commands or despite Washington. Washington was the last American General who understood attrition. Having worked for the English, Washington was properly terrified that they would send over the thug who would arm slaves in the south and burn granaries in the north. Washington wanted to keep the English generals he had. The English learned from this colonial rebellion and were far more ruthless in later conflicts. If you doubt the English could have won the American Rebellion, I give you South Africa, India, China, Ireland, and the Napoleonic Wars.

There are financial reasons for the American Rebellion and eventual victory. But the reason the British were soaking their colonies was to pay for the Seven Years War that Washington started. The British feared that colonial greed would lead to slave insurrection, indigenous uprising, and further international conflicts.

Another example of leadership making the difference is the succession of Roosevelt by Truman. Wars are decided after the battles. The loss of Roosevelt changed history. Truman took responsibility for Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But Truman was a reluctant warrior compared to Roosevelt.  Why drop atomic bombs to just turn around and accept the surrender that Japan had been offering for months?

Japan wanted to keep its emperor and Parliament:

-screw our nation, emperor comes first.

Roosevelt wasn’t interested. Roosevelt wanted unconditional surrender. When Truman got disgusted and took the deal, he proclaimed it as unconditional, it wasn’t. Roosevelt would have dropped the third bomb that was on its way, used the nerve gas we had stockpiled, invited in the Russians, and then invaded. Roosevelt may have even provided the Russians with transport.

Just as in partitioned Europe, when the waves got going of Japanese choosing who they were surrendering to, our casualties would have been a lot smaller than currently estimated. Imagine the emperor deciding which way he was running.

A partitioned Japan may have distracted Russia from Korea. Or Roosevelt may have also turned over Korea. It is said that dropping the bombs was a warning to Russia. Americans were far more disgusted with England. Britain dragged us into two world wars and obviously couldn’t manage Europe. That was our fault as well, but it couldn’t be US, must be the British. Demonstrating the fate of an indomitable island fortress in modern warfare might convince England to pack that empire up.

Roosvelt would not have allowed the French back in Indochina. Using our offshore carriers and bases in China, USA had just bombed Vietnam into starvation in support of communist Ho Chi Minh. Ho wanted Vietnam to be the Yugoslavia of Indochina, an ally of Russia and the US, a bulwark against China. The influential Nationalists running Taiwan were not impressed.  Ho Chi Minh was another in a long line of American stooges who turned against us.

Eisenhower can be seen as a return to Roosevelt’s policies ending European empire. Eisenhower stopped Israel, France and England from seizing the Suez. Israel wouldn’t exist without Truman. Roosevelt would have seen Israel as a British puppet.  

Historians fail to understand how large financial value is, as against revenue, when considering material conditions. It is difficult to appreciate how vulnerable individuals are to influence. Usually, by the time of decision the choice is obvious. Yet there are moments when we surprise ourselves. 

We don’t seem to appreciate how serious a boob president is. We have had worse presidents. Many of them had intellectual or personality faults. But no president has such an overwhelming ignorance of propriety. It is difficult to find a particular affront that is outside our history.  But they are affronts, one after another.

US empire, as all empires before us, survives on sufferance. A sort of show me better. If you are a leader or an investor at some point you will be insulted and decisions will be made. I hate the neo-neos: neocons, neolibs defending our empire, but it would be nice to dismantle things politely, instead of bringing it crashing down.

Betty Mooney MacDonald

 

I have wasted so much time on this goofy JFK assassination. If you are a serious person with a meaningful life, read no further. One obvious issue is the Warren Commission files. Almost every presidential candidate assures the public they will release the files. Once they are elected, they, or some person reviews the files and refuses. What could be so embarrassing, silly, or whatever that no one wants to reveal it decades later? Chances are if you or I reviewed the files we wouldn’t want it released either. Bad Babbling Babar is purported to have said this. Oswald, returned Russian defector, shot the president. Would nearly blowing up the world be sufficient embarrassment? Even with the latest vast dump, there are unreleased documents.

There was a Dallas comedian who talked about the Onassis love triangle. If you marry the guy, it is romance not pornography. It is always the spouse, but I don’t think Jackie was in on the assassination. She had good reason to debrief. Jackie might have felt guilt about that. When her second husband, got abusive, she might have got some help as payback. Would that do it? Whatever theory you come to; one criterion must be that it is intensely embarrassing.

Up till now I have confined these speculations behind a paywall, books: How to Replace a Kitchen Faucet and Conspiracy 101. I won’t drag you through all that. It is not proof of conspiracy but there are a lot of unidentified other guys:

·      Another guy with Oswald shooting at Walker.

·      Other guy with Oswald meetings with Cubans.

·      Other guy with Oswald at the gun range.

·      Two other guys with Oswald in Mexico City.

·      Maybe another guy at the depository.

·      Maybe a woman on the stair at the depository.

·      Shooter on top of the depository.

·      Possibility of the shooter in the other building across the way.

·      Two of the three hobos.

·      Maybe one or two other guys when Tippit is shot.

·      Maybe an Oswald lookalike at the cinema.

Why not release the list of everyone who bought that Carcano rifle from the mail order? How many could it be? I would be looking for a purchase of 5 or 10 after Hidell bought his. They were only twenty dollars each. Police would hate this because there is coincidence. Someone might be checking that it could reach, how consistent the bullet markings are, they could repack the rounds, use a better scope, fragmenting bullets, add a suppressor.

I have personally seen the grassy knoll. There is no way you can squeeze trainyard workers on the bridge, Zapruder and an unremarked sniper on that tiny grassy knoll. Fuck the grassy knoll.

-If it won’t fit, you must acquit.

Too bad, I had some dialogue for the shooters. If there was a fourth shot it was the Secret Service firing a tumbling AR15 from the following car, finishing off (or missing) Kennedy as courtesy, malice or accident. The Secret Service had some rough humor after the Reagan shooting.

I suppose you could put the three hoboes behind the wall, giving each other cover. One of them pops the rifle for a moment and shoots down on the motorcade while everyone is looking at Kennedy. Then a car comes by and gets the rifle. Would you plan like that? No witness has said there was anyone behind the wall. A more reasonable possibility is that all these people were intended as security, flooding the zone for Kennedy and embarrassed that it failed.

If there were other snipers you are going to have to squeeze them in somewhere else and they were shooting at each other with suppressors. Say they had tested the customized rifle but when it was fired the round didn’t make it out the barrel. Maybe they successfully shot the opposing assassin in the building across the way. Maybe they just tried to shoot him. That would have pissed him off. A CIA double cross? I must be mistaken. Maybe they shot the mobster on the roof of the depository. Maybe they tried to shoot Oswald. I really wanted Johnson to have Connally shot first.

The RFK mob prosecutions could have just been a mob layoff, a generational change. I had thought the mob was cleaning up and shot Oswald. I am attached to the idea that the mob shook down the Russians and LBJ for the cleanup. Since it looks like the mob, must be the FBI. Maybe Johnson didn’t trust the mob. Even if Oswald was on his own, Johnson might have wanted him killed to avoid him running his mouth. Jack Ruby was a night club owner and FBI informant. Imagine the mob and the government told you to do something. I hate all these theories that deny Oswald agency. Let Oswald shoot somebody.

They can’t even agree on how many bullets are in Kennedy’s head. I think Oswald shot Tippit because he was having trouble getting the diffident officer to arrest him and then realized that trying to convince Tippit gave himself away.

Dallas deserves more inquiry. Maybe if you could find the right person and ask the right question. As an example: I used to be a programmer at Wards Insurance, over the store on State in Chicago. An actuary had taken up programming for himself. His program had broken and he was carrying his abnormal end listing around asking for help. I was working and ignored him. After a day or so he came to me and described his debugging effort:

Me-Let me see the source listing.

A-There’s nothing wrong with the source.

He returned with the source.

Me-You didn’t code this parameter.

A-You don’t have to code that.

He came back later:

A-Why didn’t you tell me?

Me-You didn’t ask.

Dallas itself is sick of this. There’s a Lee Harvey bar, a Jack Ruby bar (no dancers), and Pegasus brewery offers 6^th floor beer. Is there someone in Dallas who would know or might they direct you to the right person if you were polite? It might be dangerous. Maybe because it’s embarrassing. There have been some events. Send Geraldo. If someone were to tell us, would we believe them?

If you are down In Dallas anyway look up the MacDonald lady, or whatever her name was. I defy you to find one documented fact about her. She doesn’t fit in anything. She smells operational. Why give an alibi for that poor schnook even if it is true? I’m guessing it has something to do with going overboard with the FBI clean up. A bookend to Marylin Monroe. If I must guess, and I guess I do, MacDonald might be another FBI informant. FBI got mad at her interfering with their operation. Since they knew her, they knew it was likely she would kill herself when she was locked up.

I think the JFK assassination started as a Kennedy stunt that got hijacked, would that be enough embarrassment? Everyone is considering the idea that the attempts on our Elephant Emperor were stunts to get more votes. Cutting his own ear could be a wrestlers move. Melania wanted to know why the police couldn’t do their job and get a child they had twice reported into a car. Police threw me and my friends in a car just fine. The Secret Service sniper team was premature and unexpected. They were supposed to be brought in after the nomination. Secret Service had a tip. Times have changed. Even if the Tufted Tyrants shootings were stunts, that didn’t change many votes. Even if I could have proven they were stunts it wouldn’t have changed many votes. 

It is hard to believe how we used to fear shame.

Conspiracy seems untenable without Kennedy involvement. With all the other guys around Oswald, at least one of them was a plant, which means there was a control. Hijacking the Kennedy stunt would be natural as well as the control collecting from South Vietnam through Nixon and Johnson through the CIA.

Sorry I dragged you into this. Hope I didn’t endanger anyone.

Franklin, Deane, and Washington

 

I was put off by the choppy narrative of Unlikely Allies by Joel Richard Paul. But it confirmed my view of conspiracy. A conspiracy is just a group of people who agree. Usually, it’s just someone alone in their motel, sucking on whatever, watching CNN saying:

-I guess that worked.

The book also highlighted how common it is to have infiltrators, provocateurs and opposition. Ben Franklin and Silas Deane understood and accepted that and still accomplished their objectives.

When Franklin finally arrived in Paris to support Deane he was wearing a fur hat. The narrative gives reasons but fails to mention that Franklin was also teasing the French about giving up Canada and its French citizens for Haiti after the Seven Years War. Franklin loved teasing and double entendre.  

In the book Arthur Lee is painted as the villain who falsely accused Dean. But where was Franklin? To have a case there should be a shortfall. Deane is unable to give account but Franklin had to know how much the French paid and how much the Patriots got. Why wasn’t Franklin screaming:

-How much was taken?

So there had to be a shortfall. The French were shy publicly saying what they sent. The Americans had to know what they spent their money on. Franklin’s silence damns Dean. Franklin had picked Deane as an envoy. But Deane shows no profit. He is penniless. Washington received the French funds. Washington was not penniless. Washington socked all his money into his plantation and land purchases. A common tactic when currency is suspect. His downfall was that the size and scope of Washington’s holdings made it difficult to collect rent. Washington was a Virginia Gentleman. Of course he was skimming. There is even a satirical picture, Washington Prays for His Troops. Washington is plump and prosperous while his troops starve. His horse stares at him from behind while Washington kneels.

The French Monarchy is portrayed as foolishly borrowing money to support the ideals of the American Revolution, seduced by their hatred of the English.  The promise of American trade, particularly tobacco, is ignored. It wasn’t realized that the Turks and Greeks would compete supplying tobacco to Europe. Everyone also failed to reckon with Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson was the next American Envoy. He and the trade minister, Lafayette, Jefferson’s best friend, failed to do the tobacco deal. Who would expect that Jefferson would act so diametrically against his own interests? Robert Morris came over to France to rescue the deal and Jefferson back stabbed him the whole way screaming:

-It’s not enough money.

Tobacco is addictive, you must establish your market. Jefferson may have been tipped by the Greeks, but it was also that from Jefferson’s position in the Virginia hierarchy, if everyone is busted then he is equal. Robert Morris thought he could have made it if he got the tobacco deal. The British captains begged Jefferson to do the deal, their ships were sitting at anchor.

Once everything caved in the Americans, in desperation, wrote the constitution to tax whiskey and give themselves enough revenue to borrow on. Washington owned a large distillery and favored the competitive advantage this gave him over the small farmers who brought whiskey over the mountains to trade. Washington had little scruple suppressing Shay’s rebellion of people who weren’t paying his rent and competed with his distillery.

Franklin must have realized that Washington was pocketing the French money. Franklin teases Washington about Washington’s lack of progeny. Franklin makes a big point of his happiness with his grandchildren and the gifting to Washington of his walking stick.

Even with the whiskey revenue, Washington was unable to get America another loan from the French. Washington had gone even handed on them earlier. So, Washington was told to grab his hat and not let the door hit him on the way out. His last act was bringing in John Adams to hold off Jefferson.

Why US is Pissing on its Allies Again

Humans differentiate on location and association. We change location to meet association and change association to meet location. Two material conditions of the US constitution were taxing whiskey[i] and protecting slavery[ii]. The document is designed to frustrate popular will. Political parties are intended to ameliorate that frustration. We now have a small group of Republicans preventing the passage of a popular defense bill that contains appropriations for Ukraine and Israel.

America has always been a nation of divided loyalties. Some Americans have loyalty to Mother Russia. That is an influence. There is also a material cause.

Republicans focus on the border while ignoring immigration policy. Republicans like undocumented immigrants who know their place. Republicans terrorized the undocumented immigrant’s children when it looked like they may get status and eventually become voters. That’s when Mexicans got insulted and the fruit rotted on the ground and stores close on Mondays. Removal of the undocumented marginal base rate was the start of our new wage inflation. [iii]

Republicans don’t like refugees. Refugees have status. Refugees can’t just do as they are told, drive the truck or whatever because it endangers their status. Republican Catholic Charities make such a mess of Venezuelans and Cubans, with our tax money.[iv]

Ukrainians immigrate fine.

Our Mexicans have gotten funny:

-Hey I was undocumented. What makes you so special? This is America. This is how we do it.

Our immigration system screens for privileged, refugees, and lawbreakers.

US created the Venezuelan and Cuban refugees with our sanctions.[v]

Holding the border is futile. If we were serious about stopping undocumented, we would do what every other country does and go after their employers. We are not serious. We want our slaves. If our undocumented had status they would no longer be valuable.

The reason Congress is waving around this nonissue is they expect to get paid. US has already gotten what we came for: we are now the junior partner with Qatar supplying natural gas to Europe. That’s why we blew up the pipeline.[vi] That incentive is gone. The other incentive was arms sales.

Ukraine’s recent loss on the battle field did not receive the same publicity or doting analysis of its victories. Our stupid generals babbled about combined units, poor Ukraine listened and ran into Russian smart mines losing a lot of people.

Warfare has changed. Find a video of a shoulder launched missile. If that large rocket was still being aimed and fired as a bazooka, the operator would be a twisted cinder. Instead, the rocket pops out of the tube, drops slightly and then takes off. When the operator is aiming, they are giving the missile directions, the missile then knows what to do. The missile could circle the tank and knock on the hatch. They are keeping it shoulder launched just to be retro. Modern missiles, radio-controlled craft, programmable mines are only limited by programmers’ imagination and fuel.

Russia may not have the particular missile or whatever to take out our fancy weapons system, but someone will want to sell them some just to see if it works. Ukraine wants kits they can adapt to circumstance. Now that Ukraine has lost interest in buying expensive weapons systems to support combined units and our manufacturers don’t want their systems publicly popped killing sales, that Congressional incentive is also gone.

As to Israel. If there was stability Gaza Marine, a large natural gas field next to Gaza, close to Europe would be developed. US and Qatar are in no hurry for that competition.

With no one to grease the bill, Congress is sucking on a dry teat. Democrats accuse Republicans of losing Ukraine. This assumes the American public has that much memory. My guess is that Ukraine and Israel will do just fine without our help which is another embarrassment.

---

[i] Shay’s Rebellion

[ii] The Counter-Revolution of 1776: Slave Resistance and the Origins of the United States of America, Gerald Horne

[iii] The subsidies burned off.

[iv] https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/250369/catholicvote-border-catholic-charities-migrants

[v] NewReport: How U.S. Sanctions Aggravated Venezuela's Crisis (wola.org)

[vi] How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (substack.com)

How Hillary Lost

 A ridiculous amount of effort is spent criticizing Hillary Clinton’s character. When elections are that close, every infraction is magnified. There is a much simpler material explanation.

It is pathetic how cheap Congress is. Most of their time is spent on phone banks raising money. There was a moment when it looked like Chicago’s alderman Vrdolyak would be sent to Congress. Imagine:

-This is a billion-dollar appropriation? I get more than this for a zoning variance.

Occasionally money rains on Washington. World War II was cost plus. Johnson unleashed Taiwan. When Nixon made the China deal, they had so much cash they were shoving it into filing cabinets. Reaganauts were Nixon wannabes. Bush Sr. held up the Saudis for Kuwait. Hillary Clinton was queen. She shook down healthcare so hard their teeth rattled. Everyone in Washington should love Hillary Clinton. The Saudis had to sit down, and Ross Perot complained about the service. Insurance and Pharmacy were in a bidding war to see who could shut it down fastest.

Healthcare was not going to allow Hillary the presidency, either time. Obama, lawyer that he is, crafted a compromise that has held. Healthcare was still frightened of Clinton. Who could they pay? Orange Julius is unreliable. Would you give money to Rumbo? Healthcare paid Putin. Healthcare didn’t have to report it. Putin used the marketing tactics we taught him for His Hugeness:

-Oh, we wouldn’t interfere in your elections.

Cambridge Analytica had a pass because they were doing god’s work. Everyone looked the other way while Cambridge Analytica, a creature of England’s security service, violated privacy protection. Cambridge Analytica was identifying the goofs. If a goof was heading to Syria say, we would know who they were. When Bannon’s boyfriend, Mercer, got hold of Cambridge Analytica he said:

-Show them where the polls are.

Cambridge Analytica shared lists with the Russians. The Russian problem was that they had no one reliable to coordinate with. Would you work for El Pompadour? Fat and Furious had to shout over the top.

It was just enough. As Joe Kennedy said:

-I’m not paying for a landslide.

I have an entry in this blog on Brexit where I speculate that healthcare paid Putin for that.

The Supreme Court is going to twist constructionist into a pretzel arguing that the 14th amendment is unconstitutional.  How can you argue original intent if you won’t respect the letter of the law? They just ignored the 9^th amendment in their “argument” against abortion. The Supremes took that original intent from the inquisition. The definition of fascism is ignoring the law in favor of popular will. Given that the law is so brazenly flaunted, our only hope is crossing over to vote for Haley in the primary.

Hamas

 Anyone who says “peace in the Mideast” should be slapped. They are announcing that what follows is stupid. Peace never had anything to do with the Mideast. The statement is arrogant. How would you like to hear “peace in the US”? American policy in the Mideast should be mute. It is disgusting to hear Americans advise and excuse each group their atrocities. Americans are never short of advice.

“Debate” in the US has circled around who’s better. It is not going to convince anyone that they should shut up and take it because their families had it coming.  No one has rounded up their criminals.

Here is a quick review of America’s relationship, keeping an American eye for the man behind the curtain and the emperor’s clothes:

Before World War II, the countries of the world refused Jewish refugees from Germany. Germans made that a big deal. During and after the war Churchill sent Jewish refugees to Palestine. British grabbed Palestine from the Ottomans. Some Pan Arabism is nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire.

Israel was founded by Harry Truman as a Baptist fantasy. Palestinians originally met the Israeli incursion by demanding a unified secular democratic state. I can see why Israel didn’t trust that compromise. While those Palestinians were right, they weren’t demanding citizenship in Israel. Fatah has now found itself splayed across the position of demanding their own secular state. It is fun seeing Muslims demand a secular state. Wilsonian democracy is fraud. Do you want to be a nation or a religious artifact?

The American position in the Middle East is oil reserves. Eisenhower said it was oil when we made Israel, France and England give back Suez. It is not just gasoline or earnings on oil. It is the financial value of oil reserves, the tapped, estimated oil in the ground. That value has a multiplier from compounded investment instruments dependent on its future value. It is much larger than oil company earnings. Finance is the best conspiracy theory.

Sirhan killed Bobby Kennedy for supporting Israel.

Golda Meir, Wisconsin school teacher, had to take on the entire world, including Kissinger and Nixon, through two major existential conflicts. Each time, US support came once the conflict was determined.

In 1978 the three stupidest men in the world: Arafat, Begin and Carter met at Camp David. Eventually Arafat said something like:

-What’s it going to be? In or out?

At that moment Begin started talking two states. Arafat’s mistake was discarding his strongest card. Israel has no intention of allowing two states.

Just as refugees created Israel, Palestinian refugees then dominated the adjoining countries of Jordan and Lebanon. In 1982 Israel had enough and charged across Lebanon surrounding the PLO military in Beirut. Israel was starving out the encircled city. Haig, the cast iron American Secretary of State told Israel to hurry it up. Then Arafat called out to King Fahd:

-Am I not yours?

Haig was out. American, French and Italian military evacuated PLO from Beirut. Each PLO military unit returned to its own country, abandoning the refugees in their camps. You can see why Israel is nuts.

There has been snark about Israel lobby. Under Bush Sr. Israel was trying to borrow 10 billion dollars. At the exact same time King Fahd gave a check for 32 billion to the US to thank us for Kuwait. That difference is orders of magnitude. The function of the Israel lobby in American politics is to maintain the price.

To belabor the obvious, we showed up for Kuwait, not Israel.

After Likud called for the murder of Prime Minister Rabin, Rabin was killed and Likud created the next government. This stopped the Oslo accord. Rabin was a git. He was always working angles and fixing things. Talmud teaches that we are only judged on our last day. On his last day Rabin was murdered at a peace demonstration. Rabin even fixed that.

Israel dug most of the tunnels under Gaza, when Gaza was intended as a buffer state. Israel supported the creation of Hamas in 1987 to undercut PLO legitimacy. The atrocities of the Gaza strip justify the settlers. Americans understand the settler game. That is where we came from.

You would suppose Israel could find an intelligent leader. Netanyahu can’t acknowledge that all the arguments are reversible, either way. Coming from America, I realize it is difficult. America has privately demanded a cease fire. Israel initially said no, now kind of. As any law enforcement or jail can explain, the only way to prevent hostages is to officially make them the first target. Inept and heartless is a bad look. Israel leadership cannot appear to acquiesce to America once again reigning them in. America has pulled back Israel at least ten times before. I don’t think Israel will change leadership. As Americans know, demonstrations are not votes.

Another occupation will fail as all the previous ones have. If Israel wanted two states, they would clear the settlers out of the territories or better yet pull the Israeli police and let Fatah, do it. This would give the PLO legitimacy. The settlers aren’t that many votes; they aren’t even in the army. Many came from America and have sponsors here. Once that was done evacuate everyone from Gaza to the west bank. If you are going to be imperial, ask yourself what would the British do? Sift through the Gaza Palestinians, get the DNA, see if they match any pictures. PLO can do the second screening. This would minimize Israel casualties. Try sending missiles from a flattened Gaza.

Don’t worry, won’t happen. Israel wants Gaza, they want Hamas. Hamas is used like our black power during the civil rights movement. The settlers do not want Gaza moved to the west bank. It is not Iran but Qatar that directs Hamas with Israel’s acquiescence. Israel had the Hamas battle plan because Israel created it.  Gas reserves are also decision making valuable. Check Gaza Marine.

The pathetic sick undisciplined losers who tortured their captives had to know that they had the time to do it. Someone else had to create the plan and coach the disposable scum. I’m guessing they hadn’t planned for success.

Don’t demand disenfranchisement in a democracy.  What advice would you give our indigenous in the US about voting? The most terrifying demand the Palestinians could make is Israeli citizenship. Then Palestinians would be the settlers. I can see why Palestinians wouldn’t trust that compromise.

Questioning legitimacy is a slippery slope. Israel is a nation; the Palestinians are a people. You are not going to impress Americans talking about land. Except for Hawaiian, Navajo and Eskimo, we all recently came from somewhere else. Few of us are the people we started from. We are raised on atrocity and bitterness. Find a county seat in Illinois, there will be a monument with the cannon pointed south. In Mississippi the cannon points north. The north was right. We aren’t that into good and bad, we do understand big and little. My only advice is to not be the US. That pursuit is futile. You be you.

-How many white people did Chief Blackhawk kill?

-Not enough.

Allying yourself with America, or any group in America, is a mistake. Even Baptists. Americans are fickle and spendthrift. The last American general who understood attrition was George Washington. As for appropriations, Ukraine and Israel will have arms. If we don’t fund them, that will free them to buy from other countries and develop their own. Our appropriations are only matched by the cost of our systems. If the left was impeding military spending, military autonomy and national interest the way the right is, we’d be dead.

Once US blew up the pipeline, we became junior partners to Qatar supplying natural gas to Europe. Neither US nor Qatar is in any hurry to see Gaza Marine developed.

Friends With the Mayor

Brandon Johnson has just been elected mayor of Chicago. Except Byrne we have always elected lawyers, even prosecutors, in the hope that they would avoid indictment. So far, they have. Johnson is the first schoolteacher. As a teacher Johnson is trying to approach crime from a Confucious perspective, systemically. Here are some obvious concerns:

A court clerk just made the mistake of self-publishing a book about a recent case. In general police, prosecutors, judges and even clerks should be cautious publicly expressing opinions that could be thrown back at them, endangering testimony, and convictions. It is unfortunate that people closest to issues are precisely the ones constrained from public discussion.

Police are not screened for clerical aptitude. Clerical tasks are a major part of police work, especially investigations. Back in the 90’s the federal government confronted domestic violence. Their solution was the development of a form that must be filed if the husband was not arrested and removed from the incident. This had the consequence of saving a lot of men’s lives. The legislators understood full well that police will do anything to avoid filling out a form.

You may be puzzled that police sometimes ventilate suspects. Imagine you are a responsible person training police. You are not training multi $100,000 SOCOM warriors who wound their opponents to entice their comrades into further casualties. Hopefully, it is unlikely that a police officer will ever be in a gun battle. You train to the exception. Your officer will undergo inquiry and may lose their job. Your objective is that the officer survives. You will train said officer to start shooting the moment they clear the holster, correct as they go, keep shooting and don’t stop till they drop. It is not common, but there are people who when shot pull out their gun and kill you. It is not a good look, but police should also receive baton training. Police should have options.

It used to be that police were the biggest street gang, they coordinated with each other, set it up and take it down. Just as Catholic school graduates make the worst public-school teachers, military are the worst police. Warrior mentality is dangerous to police survival. Running to the gun fire didn’t work against one way glass at the Tennessee bank shooting.

I don’t know if they are intentionally disingenuous, but the best argument for gun control is the You tube video channels Garand Thumb and She Equips Herself. If you have any critical faculty watching man children play in the desert, shoot hogs from helicopters, and practice with grenade launchers should give pause. I don’t mind people who are raised having guns. Trained isn’t raised. Stavroula from She Equips Herself may not be raised but she is being trained by people who were. She considers serious issues. At some point you may wonder why you need to conceal carry:

-Everyone else is.

Hmmm.

The underlying justification for all this is crime. Why are people so prejudiced against criminals? You may need a criminal someday. Boosters get shot; gangsters pardoned.

In Chicago, teachers won against police in the mayoral election. This is another click in the Officer Krupke cycle from West Side Story.  They are even considering sending social workers instead of police. Department of Children and Family Services does not have a good reputation. Every time a child dies, a social worker should be killed. It is true that criminals are created. Once they are created, they are dangerous.

Crime is intrinsic to society. Take the Barbary pirates. British and American tribute stopped any other competition with their trade. Saudi ransoms to Somali pirates encourage instability and forestall oil development. Developers encourage street gangs to clear neighborhoods. Without crime there would be no police. Wildings could not occur without police encouragement. The various prohibitions are gang subsidies. Recently Oregon tried drug legalization with dubious consequences. I was disappointed. The lesson is that legalization alone is not sufficient in America. The snap back is too great.

Most people are not carrying cash. The only people worth sticking up are poor people who can’t qualify for credit. Using stolen credit cards gets you caught. The only way violent personal crime can be profitable is if it is receiving subsidy.

I am terrified of nostalgia. In the past minority populations were deprived of police services. Even when minorities were arrested, they would likely be released unless they had violated social order and murdering each other didn’t qualify. If you didn’t deal justice on the spot it didn’t happen. I don’t want to return to two-gun Pete, and we stomp drunk drivers. I have seen social justice; I am not a fan.

Part of the difficulty is that we have seen the man behind the curtain. I don’t know how many have been freed because of DNA, records aren’t kept, but they are coming out of jail like popcorn. Circumstantial evidence, ha, eyewitness, chortle, confession, horse laugh, doesn’t leave much. In Oak Park IL most murders are unsolved. Just don’t park wrong.

People like charter schools because they don’t want their kids in class with Huck Finn. It has little to do with parental control, values, uniforms, quality… Huck Finn is a nuisance. There is no charter school for the bad kids. We used to kid Huck Finn along until he was 18 and his brain had slightly congealed. We had social promotion, outposts, tracking… He probably didn’t get a degree, but we had kept him somewhere. Now, not only is Huck Finn out on the street but we told him he was worthless. Please don’t be shocked at the consequence. From the news reports it would appear that it is often the shining kids, college bound, athletes, adept who get shot. Think Huck might have a grudge?

Whenever you get confused, ask yourself:

-What would happen if those kids were white?

Resources would be found. The children would be placed in structured environments. Chicago has an abundance of lawyers. Huck is making videos. His sponsors are violating laws against delinquency and RICO. Put the lawyers on commission.

The right has suddenly discovered mental health. It is fun to see the ill take umbrage. The right wants mental health without national health care.

We are a military imperial nation. Violence abroad reflects as violence at home. Rather than excusing military adventures we should have treated terrorism as a police concern. FBI is far more vicious than marines.  

This is a lot to put on a mayor. It would be good to get our mental health centers restored.

Street Rap

There is a new word, apophenia, created by Klaus Conrad to describe false correlations. I propose a duality with gestalt. This isn’t fair to gestalt. Gestalt is intended to break you out of your current patterns and recognize more useful ones. Sometimes we recognize incorrectly. Let us apply this duality to the USA invasion of Grenada in 1983.

When Thatcher remonstrated with Reagan over this breach of international law and convention, Reagan responded that he wanted some nutmeg for his eggnog. This was just after England had defended the Falklands.

While this remark is appropriate within the history of the spice trade, in 1988 Grenada exported 2,230 tons of nutmeg and 256 tons of mace for a total export value of $15,761,107. This was a good year. Let us find the street value. 2,486 tons is 87,691,069 ounces. I have a price of 6 ounces is $10 listed on the internet currently. Divided by 6 is 14,615,178. Times $10 gives a markup of more than 10 times the export value. Somewhere in that 100 million there might be funds to influence policy.

The tragedy of the commons as applied to institutions, bribes, is precisely because the profit of such actions far exceeds the expense. Congress scrounging for contributions for example. Winners get to fix the game is the whole point of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations. Military is a sunk cost.

Take the financial value of the nutmeg. The trade in nutmeg supports various business institutions. The multiplier of financial value is constrained by the reserve requirement. If the reserve requirement is 20% then the multiplier will be 5. There is also interest and the future value of money. Taking an arbitrary value of 5 as the multiplier times $100 million, on an annual basis, almost sounds like money.

The financial value of nutmeg is constrained by its earnings and uncertainty. More fungible assets, oil reserves, undeveloped land, don’t have that limitation. Each financial transaction requires reassessment of the asset. The development of land or the pumping of oil can crash their financial value because they are now associated with earnings. Dreams sell. It is a shame that we don’t have the technology to claim oil reserves without digging and then capping a well.

In 2021, China is harassing the Philippines over their oil. This seems silly. Where is the Philippines getting the financing to develop their oil? What is the market for the Philippine oil? All that is being determined is which Chinese company will develop the oil. Until one realizes that it is the financial value of the Philippine oil reserves that turns Chinese Communists into slathering greedy imperialists. We need to find means for nations and their populations to profit from the trade in financial value of their assets.

Returning to the events of our invasion of Grenada: Maurice Bishop, the Prime Minister of Grenada, negotiated a better price for Grenada’s nutmeg. Within the month, Bernard Coard with the support of Cuba overthrew and murdered Bishop. An important American principle had been violated. It is yet another humiliation that our founders chose our name in the belief that we would one day physically cover two continents. As it is, we dominate those two continents. The principle is that if you are going to fix it in the Caribbean, you don’t go to Cuba, you come to US’ns. After the US invasion, Grenada lost Russia as the largest and most generous buyer of its nutmeg for a time.

The financial value of Grenada itself can be understood as its debt. Through debt restructuring, grants, tourism, and selling passports enterprising Grenada reduced its debt from just under a billion US dollars in 2015 to 720 million in 2019. This is an island of 112,523 people and 134.6 square miles. In 2019 unemployment was 15.2%. In 2018 debt was 62.7% of GDP. I Don’t know how the population would have fared under General Austin. Austin took over from Coard for six days before our invasion. Today the primary industry of Grenada is debt. President Reagan’s comment was factually invalid, the invasion was not about nutmeg. The statement was in the correct spirit.

Applying the principles of gestalt, the event of the Grenada invasion took place in the context of the United States of America Empire. A good example is the career of Aristide, the prime minister of Haiti. When Aristide was overthrown in 1991, the Haitians didn’t waste time singing or smuggling guns, they lobbied Washington until we sent forces to put him back. This is how to deal with Empire. Unfortunately, drug cartels and industrialists have more clout, and Aristide was back out again. Haitian debt is a fiction. As Haiti has no autonomy the debt is treated as ours and we pay the interest. Statehood for Haiti.

Whispers in the boardroom bring deaths in the jungle. If we are to get past the flutter and theater, we must understand the profit.

Privacy

 

I spent a year in Dallas one week. Southern Methodist University had volunteered as the crash test dummy for the beta release of our library software. Wandering down the hall, I noticed a PC. I got on and brought up our company’s web site. It was 1995. When I attempted to reach our mainframe, a firewall stopped me. I knew it was possible to reach it from the internet so I called up our hex support and told them:

-The only people you are blocking are customers and employees.

Support graciously allowed me in. Normally we come back from these jaunts with scraps of paper trying to remember what we did. This time I put my changes in our source base and had it reinstalled. Monday morning, I hit the office clean. Then I made it a habit to check SMU for their dumps each day and brought them across the web.

The same situation is happening for privacy. Let us review phone surveillance. In the American Civil War, soldiers realized that rather than knocking over telegraph lines it was possible to toss a wire over the line and through inductance over hear the enemy’s messages with an earpiece. Sometimes inductance would operate the opposite way and operators would recognize that they were being monitored. Then the operators might send false information or encoded messages. Even when the code is unbroken, the fact of coded messages is useful.

In World War I communication wires were strung across battlefields.  This made it worthwhile to crawl out, splice the line and steal communications. If you could be certain of the result, this might lead to false information being sent or even giving false orders to the enemy. Sometimes they communicated audibly rather than Morse code.

The FBI made use of this technology during prohibition. They could not make recordings. Sometimes transcripts were presented in court. More often they made use of the information to provocateur or build cases. Sometimes they used parallel construction, claiming a “reliable informant”.

By the fifties phone tapping became common. Sometimes wire recorders were used. Eventually a German company came up with a phone switching device that allowed phone companies to provide surveillance as a service. In our new century surveillance is almost a by-product of digital compression and server technology. Nowadays surveillance, even video surveillance, is a matter of extending backup retention.

Old fashioned taps would be of little use on a digitized compressed signal. Even listening devices, bugs, use cell phone technology. It is much safer and more discrete to communicate as a cell phone than an analog radio signal. Why carry around some super spy recorder when you can just turn on your cell phone recording?

A major issue is identification. Traditionally credit bureaus identify us. Same name, similar birthdate, social security, address, phone, probably the same person. Credit agencies should be tracking our user IDs, IP addresses, email, but so far have not had the inclination. Marketers have developed advertising ID. Government agencies do their best. Sometimes government agencies check credit. Those requests are tracked.

For government or marketing purposes similar persons may have similar behavior and ambiguous identity is acceptable.

The only two groups that are explicitly denied our information are medical and law enforcement. This is bizarre. If you want doctors and police to behave intelligently, they have to know who you are. Just as my support people conscientiously installed their firewall, we are putting ours in the wrong place.

Brexit

Brexit makes me proud to be an American. We may see the unification of Ireland, the separation of Scotland and, most certainly, an English depression as a consequence. England will be left as a tax haven, tourist site and source for military mercenaries.  We have all been influenced by vaudeville. But the music hall is most deeply ingrained in English culture. Looking over London’s architecture, it is apparent that they are deeply silly and proud of it. Can silliness be the explanation for their ruin?

Perhaps it is the return of Boudicca.  The British were so sick of the Romans that they revolted and laid waste to Romans and their sympathizers. They were defeated attacking a Roman army. The true cause of their defeat was that the British preferred trade even under the Romans. This lesson has been lost.

Maybe it is the Greeks. English take Greeks seriously. The English classical education justifies the English empire as in the history of the empires that precede it. The Greeks rag on the Germans but they are not leaving the Union. Perhaps the English were listening to the Greeks.

The English will tell you it is because of immigrants. Don’t they know their Union from their Commonwealth? It is the Poles. The Poles are the first large immigrant group that is not from the Commonwealth. The Poles lack the correct obeisance or truculence. The English are willing to destroy the Kingdom to rid them of the Poles.

What makes Poles so insufferable to the English? They both have awful food. The English are proud of their empire. The Poles are proud of surviving the Russians and Germans. Is it orthodontia? The size of their heads? The plumbing, it has to be the plumbing.  If you are a Pole living in England, please, don’t belittle the English. Even the Irish know better than that.

Putin brought his electioneering machinery to Brexit. Taught by the Americans, the Russians made a difference, just as they did with Don John. Who paid Putin? Given the emotional satisfaction, Putin probably gave a discount, or perhaps he double billed. Some wealthy Brit outraged by the Poles? Currency speculation? Irish Americans? The French kicking England out of their club house? Fury at the old empire? Who could resist the temptation? 

We are witnessing England succumb to Empire Fatigue. The United States follows. 

Material Analysis 2019

Historical Materialism was once all the rage. Freakonomics is historical materialism without Marx. I am giving an overview and then showing how Marx and basic questions about material conditions can enlighten.

Review of Marx

Wading through the invective and gossip of three or four volumes of Marx’s Capital to find the nuggets is tedious:

1. dictatorship of the proletariat
2. labor theory of value
3. class struggle
4. money isn’t capital
5. failure of colonialism
6. Centralization of production leads to unions.
7. business cycle
8. Competition drives down margins in investment and production. Profit requires disaster and  disruption.

You’re welcome. Sorry if I missed any. These ideas have been absorbed into common use. Occasionally an economist makes a living inveighing against or rediscovering one. Bernanke’s bad asset class or Tom Peter’s excellence, for instance. Here is a list of some other market issues:  

1. Winners change the rules.
2.  Parkinson’s Law
3.  Peter Principle
4.  Dilbert Principle
5.  treat vs cure
6. positive reinforcement frustrated by regression to the mean
7. products that create their markets

In fairness Communism is new and these issues also occur in markets:

1. People want things.
2. Some are more equal than others.
3. filthy factories
4. Aldi vs Target
5. responsibility for failure
6. excessive quality
7. standing committees

Socialism is treating constituents as donors. Socialism requires accommodation with Capital. Capital has no honor.  Lyndon Johnson was our socialist president. The few remnants of his programs stand against constant attack. The nature of accommodation defines the socialist. Are you a national socialist or an international socialist?

Where is the money?

Investors seek disruption and avoid disaster. One future disaster is described by the Council of Institutional Investors. The PDF on their website lists over one hundred companies that have unequal voting structure. These neutered shares form a large percentage of the market, indexes and funds.  Ask the Winklevoss brothers about Zuckerberg.

The obvious disruptor is China. The tax cut of 2019 releases capital to invest in China. Republicans were so anxious to free capital that they capped real estate taxes. Real estate taxes are noxious because they fund local services and thus encourage social segregation. The Republicans were following the age old schism between north and south. Southerners regard infrastructure as boondoggle. When the north got free after the civil war they were able to invest in light houses, canals, and railroads. Don John’s trade war with China backs up the boat so more investors can get on.

What is the Vote count?

Don John’s victory is attributed to racism, sexism, and jobs. Yes, but these terms lack content. It is asked why those who voted for Obama then voted for Don John. It wasn’t that many. Obama’s percentage of popular vote was not that great. It was the emergency room doctor; the guy comes to in the emergency room, looks up and says to himself:

-I hope he knows what he’s doing.

We were facing disaster. Stupid wasn’t working, maybe we should try smart. Considering how bad it was and the obvious disparity of ability, the percentage was pathetic. What surprised me was that after the guy got out of the hospital, he was so mad that he took the cast off with a hammer, was in such pain that he got drunk and then drove home.

Obama, from the same neighborhood, has Hugh Hefner's I can’t believe this smile. He is proud of being president and proud of the country for electing him. Like Tom Robinson, he felt compassion and tried to help. Like Tom Robinson this provoked their rage. If Obama cares about them, it means no one else does.

Sexism also lacks emphasis. Don John is a pimp. His entree to Manhattan was young girls and coke. The hospitality industry respects the auxiliary. We didn’t all come from the little house on the prairie, which wasn’t such a great deal either. Some of us came from the little shack by the railroad. The reason Miss Kitty had a heart of gold is because that was mom. Mom got beat on the street and Marshall Dillon walked by, or maybe it was the marshal beating her. Whoever, that was Dad. That’s why she kept you. Coming off the exit ramp you will see a gas station, fast food franchise and a motel.

Don John’s abuse of immigrants has an impact. The fruit rots on the trees. Restaurants have off days. The minimum wage has increased. This woke the Federal Reserve. The Fed sees inflation as wage inflation. Raising interest rates chokes off small business, the business that competes on wages. The reason the Fed has forborne is that they recognize a blip.

What should the Democratic Party do to win the 2020 presidency? Recognize demographics. There is no Hispanic voting bloc. There is no women’s voting bloc.  There is no youth vote. The middle class is tiny. There are only two voting blocs, those who vote their interest and candidates: racist and black. There are numerous triggers but only two actual segments. The black vote deserves more than smiling and playing the saxophone.

Who got paid?

Most presidents had foreign loyalties. When Kennedy said he was a jelly donut he was expressing a loyalty that he shared with his father. Hillary strikes me as an old fashioned French girl. The puzzle is Putin. I can understand the satisfaction of paying the US of us back for installing him. But this is dangerous. He is twisting our tail and he is the leader of a nation. Why would Putin think he is blessed? Putin got paid.

Who paid Putin? The likely candidate is the Health care industry. When Hillary proposed her fetcher bill the Saudis sat down and Ross Perot complained about the service. I haven’t seen that money since Nixon’s drug, I mean trade deal with China. There is such profit that it would be irresponsible for health care, drug and insurance, to let Hillary beat Don John. Electioneering doesn’t change minds, it works the edges, and it matters in tight elections. Why did health care off shore its electioneering? Don John is unreliable and Putin doesn’t report.