There Will Be No Covid19 Vaccine

The virus spikes hold on to glycan. Glycan, sugar molecules, cover everything. Glycan is how all cells interact. Sars-Cov-2 has evolved in bats to conceal itself with glycan from your body. Search on glycan coat Sars-Cov-2 and you will find all these research articles, trying not to be snarky, not wanting to bust rice bowls, explaining the difficulty. You would think they would be more explicit in these circumstances.

Why are we getting immune reaction? How about the virus infecting foreign bodies, those viruses lack the correct coat and activate immune response? We don’t know that immune response means immunity.

We finally have some data as to morbidity. We don’t have exposure or infection but of cases resolved 20% die. A million sick means 200,000 will die. Easy bar bet, if the bars were open. 80% remission is still opportunity for delusion and quackery.

Everyone divides dead by sick. I have taken this measure as medical effectiveness. It gives a sense of testing and ER load. To get morbidity look at cases resolved. You need the recovered measure. Recovered may need air quotes. The virus is persistent. Yet those who have been sick do not relapse or infect. So sum the recovered and dead then use that number to divide the dead and you get morbidity.

In Spain they appear to have a reliable LA Roche blood test and they are getting 5% exposure, good social distancing. Five% of population gives 2,340,000. Divide cases by exposed gives around 10% for serious infection.

Multiply current U.S. cases by 10 and we have 15 million exposed that is we expect antibodies. Divide by US population and we have 4.5% exposed. Return to my ridiculously wrong assumptions in the two earlier blog entries, which weren’t very different on results. This time we will take 70% of US population for exposed, some drivel about immunity. Times 10% serious infection, times 20% morbidity, I’m getting over four million dead.

Morbidity rates vary. US-23%, NY-40%, IL-41%, GA-84%, some states have zero recovered. Since it ties to reopening, reporting is suspect. States may not realize that their poor reporting inflates their morbidity, another good reason to emphasize morbidity.

The real point is if you don’t feed the fire, it should go out. As I pointed out earlier, hope it goes out before it mutates and/or the secondary infections take hold. We haven’t seen white nose yet. It might mutate in dogs.

Covid19 Facts

Distance is it. Distance is all we have. The more we play with it, the longer it takes. Too long and the virus twitches. I hate to say mutate, sounds like a comic book. The meaningful virus change is to attack a different population segment. This sounds likely, I don’t know when, but that is how nature works. Even without Covid19 changing, once the herd is sickened, opportunistic infections increase.

There will be no vaccine. The glib, confident, hardworking, energetic, smart people who get the money are not the ones who make discoveries. The Ebola people, with the hot hand since they actually created a successful vaccine, took decades, got their funding cut. The one lab in the world that knows anything, in Wuhan, got their funding cut and their principles are in jail. The HIV people who have been staring into the abyss and making their incremental discoveries got their funding cut.

They are trying to find the coconut chocolate in the sampler. A good analogy because the virus is sugar coated. If these cookbook hamsters know what they are doing or are extremely lucky, they may find a unique identifier. Bat immune systems have been trying forever. Bats are fragile densely packed animals; their immune systems are ferocious.

The immunity has to be lasting. Rule out anyone announcing immediate promising results.

Statistics must be mandatory and qualifying in physicians’ curriculum.

            Sulfur molasses has a terrible smell

            Whatever I had, it would make me get well

            Sulfur molasses, the old country style

            Together with goose grease and turpentine oil

If you don’t have a study with a control group, you don’t have anything. Early announcement proves bias. Most people get better. We don’t know that alcohol is a factor. How can a scientist tout vitamin D without a study? Is HIV a risk factor? Do asthmatics and aids shelter more aggressively? If there is a correlation with melanin, examine it not debate it.

Refusing to experiment on people means that you experiment on the entire population. Some of the poor consequences may be due to treatment. Don’t just do something stand there. Is anyone checking the numbers?

The shame of this stupidity is that it distracts from distancing. Take your hope and the Blue Angels and put them somewhere uncomfortable.